Cycle dashboard/Indicators/Realized Price
Bitcoin on-chain indicator
Bitcoin Realized Price
Realized price is the average price at which every existing bitcoin last moved on-chain. It is the network's aggregate cost basis, and unlike every other indicator on this site it is quoted in plain dollars — which makes it directly comparable with spot. When spot trades under it, the market as a whole is holding coins at a loss.
Reading the latest public snapshot. This page shows the raw Realized Price value in its own unit, not a normalised score.
- BTC price that day
- –
- Historical percentile
- –
- Full-history range
- –
- This cycle's peak
- –
- Site cycle zone
- –
- Cycle Compass verdict
- –
Public data refreshes every six hours.
Bitcoin realized price against spot, logarithmic, full history
loading history…Realized Price (left axis, raw units) BTC price shaded: spot below realized price (MVRV under 1)
Loading the public daily series…
What the Realized Price is, and exactly how it is computed
Two public inputs: realized capitalisation, derived as market cap divided by the MVRV ratio, and circulating
supply. Both from free CoinMetrics Community fields (CapMrktCurUSD, CapMVRVCur,
SplyCur).
Realized cap prices every coin at the value it carried the last time it moved on-chain, then sums those values. Divided by supply, that gives a single dollar figure: the average acquisition price of the coins that exist. Because a coin's contribution only changes when it moves, realized price is far slower than spot — it drifts up as coins are transacted at higher prices, and it only falls when coins move at prices below the prevailing average.
Approximation disclosure
This realized price is derived from public market-cap and MVRV-ratio fields, not from an in-house UTXO-level realized-cap pipeline. Vendors that compute realized cap directly, or that adjust for entity-internal transfers, will publish a slightly different number. The direction and the cycle-scale shape agree; the exact dollar level can differ by a few percent.
The same caveat applies to what realized price means. Lost coins keep whatever price they last moved at, forever. Exchange-internal transfers and self-custody reshuffles reprice coins that never actually changed owner. Realized price is a good proxy for aggregate cost basis, not a measurement of it.
How the levels are read
Realized price has no thresholds of its own, because it is a price rather than an oscillator. What matters is its relationship to spot — and that ratio already has a name: MVRV. Spot divided by realized price is the MVRV ratio, so MVRV below 1 and "spot below realized price" are the same statement.
| Relationship | Equivalent MVRV | What it describes | Share of all days since 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spot below realized price | MVRV < 1 | The market in aggregate holds an unrealized loss. | 13.4% |
| Spot 1–2× realized price | MVRV 1–2 | A moderate premium over aggregate cost basis. | — |
| Spot above 3× realized price | MVRV ≥ 3 | Historically wide premium. | Counts toward the top-risk realized-profit family |
Every extended period spot has traded below realized price
Shaded on the chart above; these are the runs of at least fourteen consecutive days.
| Period | Length |
|---|---|
| 21 Sep – 31 Dec 2011 | 102 days |
| 1 Jan – 10 Jul 2015 | 191 days |
| 31 Jul – 22 Oct 2015 | 84 days |
| 19 Nov 2018 – 1 Apr 2019 | 134 days |
| 13 Jun – 17 Jul 2022 | 35 days |
| 19 Aug – 9 Sep 2022 | 22 days |
| 13 Sep – 3 Nov 2022 | 52 days |
| 6 Nov 2022 – 12 Jan 2023 | 68 days |
Eight episodes in fifteen years, clustered into four distinct market periods. That is the whole sample, and it is the reason this page describes coincidence rather than making claims about what happens next.
What every Bitcoin cycle actually printed
Because realized price only rarely falls, its own maximum in a cycle is not informative. What is informative is where it sat relative to spot at each cycle's price extremes.
| Cycle | BTC price peak | Realized price then | MVRV then | Post-peak low | Realized price then | MVRV then |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 cycle | $29.03 2011-06-08 | $3.93 | 7.39 | $2.11 2011-11-18 | $4.97 | 0.42 |
| 2013 cycle | $1,135 2013-12-04 | $241 | 4.72 | $176 2015-01-14 | $312 | 0.56 |
| 2017 cycle | $19,641 2017-12-16 | $4,433 | 4.43 | $3,185 2018-12-15 | $4,613 | 0.69 |
| 2021 cycle | $67,542 2021-11-08 | $23,660 | 2.85 | $15,758 2022-11-09 | $20,901 | 0.75 |
| 2025 cycle (open) | $124,824 2025-10-06 | $54,576 | 2.29 | $60,772 2026-06-06 | $53,168 | 1.14 |
Cycle windows run low-to-low, using the same boundaries as the dashboard's cycle map: 18 Nov 2011, 14 Jan 2015, 15 Dec 2018 and 9 Nov 2022. The trough column is the lowest reading after that cycle's peak. The table is recomputed in your browser from the published series, so it stays correct as new data arrives.
MVRV at each cycle price peak, in order: 7.39 → 4.72 → 4.43 → 2.85 → 2.29. The premium the market has been willing to pay over its own aggregate cost basis has compressed every cycle.
The trough column compresses in the same direction from the other side: MVRV at the cycle low has risen from 0.42 in 2011 to 0.56, 0.69 and 0.75, and in the open cycle the lowest reading so far is 1.14 — spot has not yet traded below realized price at any point since January 2023.
Realized price itself is a much steadier line than spot. Across the whole series it fell on 31% of days, but its deepest peak-to-trough drawdown was −34% in 2012, and since 2015 the worst it has managed is −20% (March 2019). That steadiness is what makes it useful as a reference level, and also what makes it useless as a timing tool: a line that moves slowly cannot tell you anything about the next week.
Limits worth knowing before you lean on this
It is a moving reference, not a floor. Spot has closed below realized price in four separate market periods. Describing it as a "floor" is contradicted by the table above.
Coin movement is not purchase. Every caveat about realized cap applies: lost coins, internal transfers and consolidation transactions all move the number without an economic trade behind them.
It lags by construction. Realized price changes only as coins move. In a fast market it can be weeks or months behind what participants actually paid, and after a long quiet period it barely moves at all.
Related but distinct. Short-term and long-term holder realized prices, and the Balanced Price used on the dashboard's daily card, are separate series with their own methodologies — the CryptoTIDE methodology page documents each of them.
Questions people ask about the Realized Price
What is Bitcoin's realized price?
Realized price is Bitcoin's realized capitalisation divided by its circulating supply: the average price at which the coins that exist today last moved on-chain. It is commonly used as the network's aggregate cost basis, and it is quoted in dollars so it can be compared directly with spot.
How is Bitcoin's realized price calculated?
Realized cap values every coin at the price it carried when it last moved on-chain and sums those values; dividing by circulating supply gives realized price. CryptoTIDE derives realized cap as market cap divided by the MVRV ratio, using free CoinMetrics Community fields, which makes realized price equal to spot price divided by MVRV.
What has happened when Bitcoin traded below its realized price?
It means the market in aggregate holds an unrealized loss, which is the same condition as MVRV below 1. It has occurred on 13.4% of all days since 2010, in eight runs of two weeks or more, clustered in late 2011, 2015, the 2018–19 winter and the second half of 2022. Those episodes coincided with the deepest points of past bear markets — a historical coincidence over four cycles, not a rule.
Is realized price the same as MVRV?
They are directly linked: MVRV is spot price divided by realized price. Realized price is a dollar level you can put on a price chart; MVRV is the ratio between spot and that level. MVRV below 1 and spot below realized price describe the identical condition.
Related Bitcoin cycle indicators
No single gauge carries a cycle read on its own. CryptoTIDE groups correlated metrics into families so that four views of the same realized-cap data cannot vote four times — the reasoning is on the methodology page, and the combined live read is on the Bitcoin cycle dashboard.