Transparent model · 100 reference units
See the weighting.
Keep the decision.
This explorer shows how one mechanical DCA rule changes as the absolute cycle reading moves. It always starts from 100 model units: there is no budget, account, exchange or order input. The output describes the rule; it does not prescribe a trade.
Allocation anatomy
One reference weight, three conditional reserves
| Model component | Observation level | Share of 100 units | Role in the rule |
|---|
Interpretation boundary. Observation levels are relative price changes used to explain the model's geometry. They are not limit-order instructions, targets or a recommendation to allocate capital.
How the rule behaves
Absolute heat changes the shape, not your decision
The model reads Absolute TIDE (0–1) from data/latest.json. If that composite
is unavailable, it may display the narrower MVRV-Z valuation lens from the long series and names
that fallback explicitly. The two numbers are never presented as interchangeable.
- Reference weight. Falls continuously from 62% toward 5% as Absolute TIDE rises.
- Conditional reserve. The remainder is split 25% / 35% / 40% across three progressively deeper observation levels.
- Level spacing. Base distances of 4% / 9% / 16% widen with cycle heat. This is a model illustration, not evidence that those prices will occur.
| Absolute TIDE | Historical label | Model geometry |
|---|---|---|
| ≤ 0.15 | Deep-value evidence | Higher reference weight; tighter observation levels |
| 0.15–0.35 | Value evidence | Reference-heavy, with a smaller conditional reserve |
| 0.35–0.55 | Middle range | More balanced reference and reserve weights |
| 0.55–0.75 | Elevated heat | Lower reference weight; wider observation levels |
| > 0.75 | Extreme heat | Minimum reference weight; deepest model spacing |
Educational market context only. The model does not know a reader's holdings, liabilities, horizon, jurisdiction, taxes or risk capacity. Its value is transparency: the rule can be inspected without being mistaken for an individualized plan.