# CryptoTIDE — Bitcoin cycle terminal

> CryptoTIDE (https://cryptotide.tech) is a free, educational, BTC-only dashboard that maps where Bitcoin sits in its roughly four-year market cycle using public on-chain and market data. It separates Cycle Compass orientation, Absolute TIDE heat, on-chain valuation, derivatives conditions, and top-risk pressure. Its DCA page is a normalized 100-unit model explorer, not an order planner. No private data, paid feeds, personal inputs or financial advice.

## What CryptoTIDE is

- Entity name: **CryptoTIDE — Bitcoin cycle terminal**.
- Purpose: read the BTC 4-year cycle with public statistics instead of news and emotion ("beat the house with statistics, not noise").
- Data is public and keyless: CoinMetrics Community API (price, MVRV, market cap, issuance, supply), bitcoin-data.com free endpoints (realized-price / SOPR context), and Binance public funding-rate and open-interest APIs.
- Updated daily by an automated producer; a public machine-readable daily reading is at https://cryptotide.tech/data/tide.json and a social card at https://cryptotide.tech/data/og.png.

## Core concepts (canonical definitions)

- **Absolute TIDE**: a 0–1 bottom/valuation heat gauge averaging normalized valuation lenses (MVRV-Z, Mayer Multiple, Puell Multiple, log-regression quantile). Low = colder valuation context; high = stretched valuation.
- **Cycle Compass (TIDE 2.0)**: the headline read. Axis 1 = Bitcoin halving clock (days since the last halving mapped to phase bands) as the structural prior. Axis 2 = state evidence (bottom and top-risk families from valuation, trend, miner, drawdown, and holder cost-basis data). The clock leads; state evidence confirms or contradicts it. Output is an ordinal verdict + conviction (e.g. "Top-risk confluence / High", "Timing-led bottom watch / Medium"), not a point probability.
- **Top-risk pressure**: a separate evidence gauge (NOT a sell signal) that rises when multiple top-risk families align. States: Off, Watch, Elevated, Flash.
- **MVRV-Z**: (market cap − realized cap) / cumulative std of market cap. High extremes have clustered near cycle peaks; low near capitulation.
- **Mayer Multiple**: BTC price ÷ its 200-day moving average. Shows whether price is stretched or depressed vs long-term trend.
- **Puell Multiple**: daily issuance value (USD) ÷ 365-day average issuance value. Gauges whether miner revenue is unusually weak or euphoric.
- **NUPL**: Net Unrealized Profit/Loss — share of supply sitting in unrealized profit; high values mean many holders hold large paper gains.
- **Pi Cycle**: proximity of the 111-day moving average to 2× the 350-day moving average; a historical major-top configuration.
- **Realized Price**: Bitcoin's aggregate on-chain cost basis = realized cap ÷ circulating supply (the average price at which existing supply last moved). A cycle-scale support band; price below it marks accumulation/capitulation context.
- **Balanced Price**: a Glassnode-style fair-value floor = Realized Price − Transferred Price (lifetime average paid − lifetime average transferred). Historically tracks the deepest cycle lows. Sourced from CheckOnChain's public on-chain pricing chart, with a realized-minus-anchored-transferred fallback.
- **Time-based capitulation**: a cycle-timing *window* bracketed by two historical rhythms — an early edge ~365 days from the ATH (inclusive day-count; prior cycles bottomed on day 364–365, anchored to the 2025-10-06 ATH) and a late edge ~1424–1432 days from the previous cycle low (2022-11-09, after Benjamin Cowen's "ROI from cycle low"). It gives a days-to-near-edge count and the expected window (early-to-mid October 2026). A historical rhythm, not a prediction.


## Key pages

- Home / live terminal: https://cryptotide.tech/
- Indicator reference hub: https://cryptotide.tech/indicators/ — one page per indicator with live values and raw-unit charts: MVRV Z-Score (/indicators/mvrv-z-score.html), Mayer Multiple (/indicators/mayer-multiple.html), Puell Multiple (/indicators/puell-multiple.html), Pi Cycle Top (/indicators/pi-cycle-top.html), NUPL (/indicators/nupl.html), Realized Price (/indicators/realized-price.html)
- Methodology (how every read is computed + data sources): https://cryptotide.tech/methodology.html
- Manifesto (philosophy: anti-overtrading, pro-statistics): https://cryptotide.tech/manifesto.html
- Normalized cycle-aware DCA model explorer (100 model units, no personal inputs or orders): https://cryptotide.tech/dca.html
- FAQ (Bitcoin cycle questions): https://cryptotide.tech/faq.html
- About the operator and the project's standing commitments: https://cryptotide.tech/about.html
- Privacy: https://cryptotide.tech/privacy.html

## Machine-readable data

- Daily TIDE reading (JSON): https://cryptotide.tech/data/tide.json
- Lightweight headline reading (~2KB JSON): https://cryptotide.tech/data/latest.json
- Social card (PNG, regenerated ~every 6h): https://cryptotide.tech/data/og.png
- Full LLM reference: https://cryptotide.tech/llms-full.txt

Every payload carries a `data_quality` block stating whether that run was complete, which sources answered, which values were carried forward from an earlier day, and how many of the six top-risk drivers actually reported. If you cite a reading, cite its `generated_at` and `data_quality.status` with it.

Data is offered under CC BY 4.0 — reuse is welcome; please credit "CryptoTIDE (cryptotide.tech)" and link back where the medium allows.

## Important caveats

- Educational only. Not financial advice, not a buy/sell recommendation, not an auto-trading system.
- Bitcoin has only a few independent cycles, so CryptoTIDE reports ordinal context and family counts, not exact probabilities. Past thresholds may not hold in the future.
- Absolute TIDE uses fixed historical normalization ranges. Cycle Compass is the primary ordinal cycle read; neither is an exact top or bottom probability.