Cycle dashboard/Indicators/Mayer Multiple
Bitcoin on-chain indicator
Bitcoin Mayer Multiple
The Mayer Multiple is the least mysterious indicator on this site: it is Bitcoin's price divided by its own 200-day moving average, and nothing else. Popularised by Trace Mayer, it answers how stretched or how discounted spot is against its long trend, in a single number where 1.00 means "exactly on trend".
Reading the latest public snapshot. This page shows the raw Mayer Multiple value in its own unit, not a normalised score.
- BTC price that day
- –
- Historical percentile
- –
- Full-history range
- –
- This cycle's peak
- –
- Site cycle zone
- –
- Cycle Compass verdict
- –
Public data refreshes every six hours.
Bitcoin Mayer Multiple, full history on a logarithmic axis
loading history…Mayer Multiple (left axis, raw units) BTC price (right axis, log) 0.80 · 1.00 · 1.80 · 2.40 reference levels
Loading the public daily series…
What the Mayer Multiple is, and exactly how it is computed
One input, one operation. CryptoTIDE takes the CoinMetrics Community daily close (PriceUSD),
averages the last 200 of them with a plain unweighted mean, and divides today's price by that average.
At the very start of the series there are fewer than 200 prior closes, so the window is whatever history exists — which is why the 2010 readings sit on a shorter and noisier average than everything after mid-2011. No smoothing, no exponential weighting, no volatility adjustment: an exponentially weighted 200-day average would give a different and equally defensible number, and vendors do differ here.
Why the chart uses a log axis
The Mayer Multiple reached 13.07 in June 2011 and has not been above 1.85 since March 2024. On a linear axis the last two cycles would be a flat line at the bottom of the frame. The axis here is logarithmic so that a move from 0.8 to 1.0 is as readable as a move from 8 to 10 — the ratio is what carries meaning. The decay itself is real and is described below rather than hidden by the scaling.
How the levels are read
The multiple feeds the 0–1 TIDE valuation lens (normalised across 0.80 to 2.40) and the Cycle Compass, where it is the sole member of the trend families on both sides — trend discount below, trend extension above.
| Band | What it describes | Role in CryptoTIDE | Share of all days since 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below 0.80 | Price more than 20% under its own 200-day average. | Trend-discount family active | 16.5% |
| Below 1.00 | Price under its 200-day average at all. | Trend-discount family on watch | 36.7% |
| 1.00 – 1.80 | Above trend, within the normal range. | No family flag until 1.40 | — |
| 1.80 and above | Price 80%+ above its 200-day average. | Trend/timing extension family active | 14.6% |
| 2.40 and above | The historical stretch band. | Top-risk pressure flash level | 6.5% |
Note how ordinary "below 1.00" is: more than a third of all days since 2010. Bitcoin spends a great deal of its life below its own 200-day average, which is a useful corrective to reading any single sub-1 print as remarkable.
What every Bitcoin cycle actually printed
The multiple at each cycle's own extreme, computed from the public series charted above.
| Cycle | Peak Mayer | BTC price then | Post-peak trough | BTC price then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 cycle | 13.07 2011-06-08 | $29.03 | 0.23 2011-11-18 | $2.11 |
| 2013 cycle | 8.26 2013-04-09 | $231 | 0.40 2015-01-14 | $176 |
| 2017 cycle | 3.78 2017-12-16 | $19,641 | 0.51 2018-12-15 | $3,185 |
| 2021 cycle | 2.83 2021-01-08 | $40,775 | 0.48 2022-06-18 | $19,014 |
| 2025 cycle (open) | 1.85 2024-03-13 | $73,082 | 0.62 so far 2026-02-05 | $63,495 |
Cycle windows run low-to-low, using the same boundaries as the dashboard's cycle map: 18 Nov 2011, 14 Jan 2015, 15 Dec 2018 and 9 Nov 2022. The trough column is the lowest reading after that cycle's peak. The table is recomputed in your browser from the published series, so it stays correct as new data arrives.
Peak-to-peak, the Mayer Multiple has fallen every cycle: 13.07 → 8.26 → 3.78 → 2.83 → 1.85. Each cycle top has printed a lower extreme than the one before it, so a level that was ordinary in 2013 has not been reached since.
The 2.40 threshold that appears on almost every Mayer chart on the internet was last exceeded in the 2013 cycle. It has not been reached in 2017, 2021 or the current cycle. Anyone waiting for it as a milestone has now waited more than a decade.
The current cycle makes the point sharply. Bitcoin set an all-time high of $124,824 on 6 October 2025 with a Mayer Multiple of just 1.18 — a record price reached while trading only 18% above its own 200-day average. A cycle that grinds upward rather than blowing off simply does not generate large trend-extension readings, and an indicator built to catch blow-offs will stay quiet through it.
Limits worth knowing before you lean on this
200 days is a convention, not a law. The window was chosen because it is a common long-trend proxy in traditional markets. A 180-day or 250-day average would give a different multiple and a different set of historical thresholds.
The average lags, by construction. After a fast move the denominator catches up over the following months, so the multiple falls even if price does nothing. Reading a declining Mayer Multiple as "cooling off" can simply be the moving average arriving.
Amplitude decay makes fixed thresholds stale. As Bitcoin's realised volatility has fallen cycle over cycle, the multiple's range has narrowed with it. A band calibrated on 2013 data describes a market that no longer exists. CryptoTIDE keeps the 1.80 and 2.40 levels because changing a published band silently is worse than leaving a stale one visible — but the decay is stated on the page, not hidden.
Questions people ask about the Mayer Multiple
What is the Mayer Multiple?
The Mayer Multiple is Bitcoin's current price divided by its 200-day simple moving average. A value of 1.00 means price sits exactly on its long-term trend, below 1.00 means it trades under trend, and above 1.00 means it trades above it. It is a trend-extension description, not an instruction.
How is the Mayer Multiple calculated?
Take the last 200 daily closing prices, average them with a plain unweighted mean, then divide the current price by that average. CryptoTIDE uses the free CoinMetrics Community PriceUSD series, so the number is reproducible from public data with a spreadsheet.
What counts as a high or a low Mayer Multiple for Bitcoin?
Historically, below 0.80 has occurred on about 16.5% of all days since 2010 and clustered in deep bear markets; above 1.80 on about 14.6% and above 2.40 on about 6.5%, concentrated in the 2011 and 2013 cycles. Because the range has narrowed every cycle, those older thresholds describe a more volatile market than the one trading today.
Why has the Mayer Multiple been so much lower in recent cycles?
Because Bitcoin's realised volatility has fallen as the asset has grown. Cycle peaks printed 13.07, 8.26, 3.78, 2.83 and 1.85 — a lower high every time. In the current cycle Bitcoin reached a record $124,824 on 6 October 2025 with a Mayer Multiple of only 1.18, so a record price and an unremarkable trend extension happened on the same day.
Related Bitcoin cycle indicators
No single gauge carries a cycle read on its own. CryptoTIDE groups correlated metrics into families so that four views of the same realized-cap data cannot vote four times — the reasoning is on the methodology page, and the combined live read is on the Bitcoin cycle dashboard.